FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
July 29, 2019
NEW DATA: SENATE IS OUT OF REACH IN 2020 UNLESS DEMOCRATS WIN BACK RURAL VOTERS
WASHINGTON, D.C. – One Country Project (OCP) today released new, original data showing the correlation between Presidential and Senate election outcomes, proving the Democratic road to victory is contingent upon rural support. Despite Republicans defending 22 seats, weak rural performance could doom Democrats in 2020 and beyond.
“Our data shows that Republicans have a 40 seat, built-in base in the Senate, meaning unless we do a better job engaging rural Americans, Republicans will have a massive head start in every race for a Senate majority and a lock on enough seats to stand in the way of a Democratic president’s agenda. If nothing changes, Democrats will never have more than a hope and a prayer of eking out a slim Senate majority – at best,” said founding board member and former North Dakota Senator Heidi Heitkamp. “Voters are not connecting with Democrats and we risk being stuck in the minority for decades to come if we do not re-open the dialogue with Americans who live in the countryside and small towns across every region.”
- Presidential outcomes matter when it comes to the Senate majority.
- In 2016, every single Senate result matched the top of the ticket in the state.
- The GOP Senate majority is built on rural states: 19% of the population yields a state “base” of 40 seats while just Manchin, Tester, and Jones hold seats in that GOP base geography.
Get a closer look at the graphs and data in the full deck here.
About One Country Project
The One Country Project is working to promote greater opportunities for rural communities and ensure leaders earn support from rural Americans. One Country is reengaging with the American Heartland, serving as a clearinghouse of research and information for rural Americans, and working to ensure leaders regain trust by fighting for these communities. To learn more, visit the website, OneCountryProject.org.