The Uncertainty in the Economy
As we inch closer to the end of 2025, the numbers tell a sobering story about the financial issues Americans are facing. Under Trump 2.0, the suffering is heightened and acute. It is also irrefutable. The One Country Project has done the research, so you don’t have to.
Unemployment Rising as Hiring Stagnates
- Unemployed Americans are struggling to find jobs, with Americans feeling the most pessimistic about job opportunities in over 12 years.
- There are more Americans looking for jobs than there are openings.
- Even higher: the unemployment rate for Black Americans. It hit 7.5%, up from 7.2% last month (Sept)
- Another red flag: College graduates and young people at large are struggling to find their footing in the job market. The unemployment rate among recent college graduates is higher than the national average; the Federal Reserve says it averaged 5.3% this summer, versus the unemployment rate for all Americans of 4.3%.
- Trump’s labor market is slowing to a crawl, losing over 32,000 jobs in September — well below expectations.
- Nationwide unemployment is at its highest rate since 2021.
- American manufacturing lost 12,000 jobs in August — bringing total manufacturing losses under Trump to 33,000 jobs, amid six straight months of contracting sector activity.
- In June and July, the rate of hiring was just 3.3% — the slowest for any two months since 2013.
- The stressful uncertainty and shifting policies of Trump’s economic agenda is tanking consumer sentiment as prices continue to soar.
Nominal Wages are Declining
- The economic gains in this economy are solely going to the rich, driven in large part by inflation outpacing wages for workers and the One Big Beautiful Bill exacerbating the upward redistribution of income. Prices for almost every consumer staple is rising, particularly at the grocery store. This is having a wider impact on the health of the economy:
“Campbell’s Expects Dropoff in 2026 Earnings as Tariffs Hit Soup Cans” – Wall Street Journal
“Tariffs Are Hitting Your Morning Brew. Folgers Maker Says Prices to Rise Further.” – Wall Street Journal
“Hormel to Raise Prices, Citing Costlier Pork, Beef and Nuts” – Wall Street Journal
Energy Prices Rising Well Above the Rate of Inflation
Trump on Truth Social, Aug. 20: “Any State that has built and relied on WINDMILLS and SOLAR for power are seeing RECORD BREAKING INCREASES IN ELECTRICITY AND ENERGY COSTS. THE SCAM OF THE CENTURY!”
- The facts: The four states where wind and solar produce the greatest share of electricity — Iowa, South Dakota, Kansas and New Mexico — are among the 20 cheapest states for electricity, according to federal data. Despite the upfront cost, wind and solar are immune from price spikes on the gas market, and the rapid drop in battery prices means pairing them with storage is increasingly competitive with fossil fuel plants.
- In fact, analysis of federal data by University of Oxford scientist Hannah Ritchie showed there’s not much correlation between a state’s resource mix and prices. Most renewable-heavy states have lower rates, but California has some of the costliest electricity, in part because of utility spending on wildfire prevention.
- The September 11th Consumer Price Index report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that electricity prices are up 6.2 percent from last year, rising faster than inflation.
- But that can’t be pinned directly on Trump’s policies. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), electricity prices have been outpacing inflation since 2022. Utilities set those rates in advance, reflecting factors like the cost of new infrastructure, pressure from data centers and wildfire prevention.
- Trump’s policies to block clean energy and increase tariffs are likely to increase rates further, forecasts show. Princeton University models predict that the average household could pay $165 more for electricity per year by 2030 and $280 more per year by 2035.
Credit Card Defaults are Surging
- New data shows that four in 10 people say they are buying fewer things because of Trump’s trade war.
- Americans are taking on credit card debt just to cope:
- The total amount of credit card debt nationwide surpassed $1.2 trillion in the second quarter of 2025, yet another new record high, while the average cardholder owes nearly $8,000 on their unpaid balances.
- What's perhaps even more concerning, though, is that delinquency rates have climbed steadily over the past year. For borrowers already stretched thin, that means late fees, mounting interest charges and increasing stress as bills pile up.
- At the same time, the cost of borrowing remains steep. Average credit card APRs are hovering around 22%, one of the highest levels in decades. At that rate (or higher), even a modest balance can quickly snowball into a hefty burden that can't easily be paid off.
Defaults in car Loans Accelerating
- Defaults in car loans have continued to rise since August 2025, reaching or exceeding historical highs across all credit tiers. A July 2025 report by VantageScore indicates that late-stage auto loan delinquencies (over 90 days past due) have increased year-over-year in the Subprime and Prime credit segments by 109% and 47%, respectively.
- According to TransUnion, 1.56% of auto loans were 60 days or more past due in the first quarter of 2025, up from 1.50% a year ago.
- Rising vehicle prices and overall inflation through 2022 and the start of 2023 may be responsible for a higher percentage of auto loans being in hardship compared to previous years.
- Defaults on auto loans is considered an indicator of an economy in decline. Most Americans will pay their car loans first, as a means of ensuring they have transport to work in order to earn money to pay their other bills as well. Falling into default and risking the loss of transportation is a strong indication that consumers are deeply under water and the economy as a whole is faltering.
Foreclosures Surging to New Highs
- There were 187,659 foreclosures in the first half of 2025, according to ATTOM. That's up 6% from the first half of 2024.
- The resumption of student loan debt payments is exacerbating the risk of foreclosures for many Americans.
Insurance Rates Increasing Rapidly for Homeowners, Auto, Renters, etc.
- Health insurance companies are jacking up premiums at the highest rate in 15 years;
- In just a few weeks, unless Congress acts, Americans will start getting letters in the mail telling them their health insurance costs is about to go through the roof.
- People who get covered through the ACA will see their premiums spike by an average of 18%.
- Democrats have fought 3 times in the past 6 months to pass these extensions, and every time, Republicans blocked them.
Health Insurance Rate Increases and Loss of Coverage
- Due to passage of the Affordable Care Act and states’ expansion of Medicaid, over 21 million people are able to access affordable coverage.
- The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates the $625 billion of cuts to health programs in the OBBBA would largely come from the Medicaid program and could increase the number of people without health insurance by at least 10.3 million by 2034,
- Absent Congressional action, the premium subsidies that help millions of Americans afford coverage through the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplaces will expire at the end of 2025. The CBO also estimates the OBBBA would leave 3.1 million currently on the ACA Marketplaces uninsured and 4.2 million more uninsured with the expiration of the enhanced premium tax credits.
- The Kaiser Family Foundation tracks the various policy mechanisms proposed and where CBO scored savings. These include work requirements, limiting eligibility, reducing funding to states, and state provider taxes, rolling back Medicaid expansion for states that selected to extend coverage, among several others.
- The Georgetown Center for Children and Families reported, rural areas will feel this pain more acutely.
- Offsetting tax breaks for the wealthy on the lives of lower-income families, children and adults with disabilities, and elderly people who rely on Medicaid does not reflect the values we hold deeply in this country. Let’s hold lawmakers accountable for their actions.
Polling Turns Sour on Trade Deals
- One of the president’s stated goals in his global trade war was to reshore manufacturing, but the industry has been shrinking all year. In September, 12,000 manufacturing jobs were lost and 78,000 have been lost this year.
- The public has followed Trump's shifting and inconsistent trade policies all year, and according to recent polling they have lost patience with 61% of Americans disapproving of Trump's handling of trade.
- Trump has also issued a $20 billion bailout of Argentina - a move Trump says is “not going to make a big difference for our country". This bailout comes on the heels of Argentina removing an export tariff on soybeans to undercut U.S. growers and take the remaining space in Chinese market that was previously filled by exports from the U.S.